COVID-19 outcomes in patients with cancer: Findings from the University of California health system database.

BACKGROUND: The interaction between cancer diagnoses and COVID-19 infection and outcomes is unclear. We leveraged a state-wide, multi-institutional database to assess cancer-related risk factors for poor COVID-19 outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the University of California Health COVID Research Dataset, which includes electronic health data of patients tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) at 17 California medical centers. We identified adults tested for SARS-CoV-2 from 2/1/2020-12/31/2020 and selected a cohort of patients with cancer. We obtained demographic, clinical, cancer type, and antineoplastic therapy data. The primary outcome was hospitalization within 30d after the first positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Secondary outcomes were SARS-CoV-2 positivity and severe COVID-19 (intensive care, mechanical ventilation, or death within 30d after the first positive test). We used multivariable logistic regression to identify cancer-related factors associated with outcomes. RESULTS: We identified 409,462 patients undergoing SARS-CoV-2 testing. Of 49,918 patients with cancer, 1781 (3.6%) tested positive. Patients with cancer were less likely to test positive (RR 0.70, 95% CI: 0.67-0.74, p < 0.001). Among the 1781 SARS-CoV-2-positive patients with cancer, BCR/ABL-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (RR 2.15, 95% CI: 1.25-3.41, p = 0.007), venetoclax (RR 2.96, 95% CI: 1.14-5.66, p = 0.028), and methotrexate (RR 2.72, 95% CI: 1.10-5.19, p = 0.032) were associated with greater hospitalization risk. Cancer and therapy types were not associated with severe COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, diverse cohort, cancer was associated with a decreased risk of SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Patients with BCR/ABL-negative myeloproliferative neoplasm or receiving methotrexate or venetoclax may be at increased risk of hospitalization following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Mechanistic and comparative studies are needed to validate findings.

Dynamic modeling of hospitalized COVID-19 patients reveals disease state-dependent risk factors.

OBJECTIVE: The study sought to investigate the disease state-dependent risk profiles of patient demographics and medical comorbidities associated with adverse outcomes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A covariate-dependent, continuous-time hidden Markov model with 4 states (moderate, severe, discharged, and deceased) was used to model the dynamic progression of COVID-19 during the course of hospitalization. All model parameters were estimated using the electronic health records of 1362 patients from ProMedica Health System admitted between March 20, 2020 and December 29, 2020 with a positive nasopharyngeal PCR test for SARS-CoV-2. Demographic characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs, and laboratory test results were retrospectively evaluated to infer a patient's clinical progression. RESULTS: The association between patient-level covariates and risk of progression was found to be disease state dependent. Specifically, while being male, being Black or having a medical comorbidity were all associated with an increased risk of progressing from the moderate disease state to the severe disease state, these same factors were associated with a decreased risk of progressing from the severe disease state to the deceased state. DISCUSSION: Recent studies have not included analyses of the temporal progression of COVID-19, making the current study a unique modeling-based approach to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 in hospitalized patients. CONCLUSION: Dynamic risk stratification models have the potential to improve clinical outcomes not only in COVID-19, but also in a myriad of other acute and chronic diseases that, to date, have largely been assessed only by static modeling techniques.

Budget constrained machine learning for early prediction of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 patients.

The combination of machine learning (ML) and electronic health records (EHR) data may be able to improve outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients through improved risk stratification and patient outcome prediction. However, in resource constrained environments the clinical utility of such data-driven predictive tools may be limited by the cost or unavailability of certain laboratory tests. We leveraged EHR data to develop an ML-based tool for predicting adverse outcomes that optimizes clinical utility under a given cost structure. We further gained insights into the decision-making process of the ML models through an explainable AI tool. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Health System in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. We tested the performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality. We performed post hoc analysis to obtain optimal feature sets under various budget constraints. We demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a significant reduction in cost at the expense of a small reduction in predictive performance. For example, when predicting ventilation, it is possible to achieve a 43% reduction in cost with only a 3% reduction in performance. Similarly, when predicting mortality, it is possible to achieve a 50% reduction in cost with only a 1% reduction in performance. This study presents a quick, accurate, and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.